In Davos, Switzerland, international leaders are set to gather for a crucial panel discussion on a hypothetical disease known as Disease X. With the potential to cause 20 times more fatalities than the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Disease X has become a pressing concern for global health experts. The World Economic Forum has organised the meeting, titled “Preparing for Disease X,” which aims to explore novel efforts required to strengthen the healthcare system in anticipation of this looming threat.
Disease X represents the possibility of a severe international epidemic caused by a pathogen currently unknown in human disease, as described by the World Health Organization (WHO) on its official website. The goal of this discussion is to ensure that we are as prepared as possible for an unknown disease that could surpass the power of COVID-19. Kerry Bowman, a professor of bioethics and global health at the University of Toronto, explains that Disease X is a hypothetical scenario that forces us to consider how the world would respond to a rapidly emerging disease threat.
Preparation for Disease X has been a key focus, but some experts express concerns about the lack of emphasis on prevention, especially in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Bowman believes that the greatest threat from Disease X would likely be zoonotic, meaning it would emerge from animals. He points out that the destruction of animal habitats and loss of biodiversity increase the risk of zoonotic diseases. Therefore, he suggests that prevention measures should be given equal attention alongside preparation efforts.
A study published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research in 2021 estimates that there are approximately 1.67 million unidentified viruses in mammals and birds, half of which have the potential to transmit to humans. Factors such as increasing human population, loss of biodiversity, changing climates, and aggressive land use contribute to the growing interfaces between humans, animals, and the environment, thereby amplifying the risk of unknown threats. The recent example of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which has caused millions of deaths worldwide, highlights the urgency of addressing these emerging infectious diseases.
The concept of Disease X was first introduced in the World Health Organization’s 2018 Blueprint of Priority Diseases, which identifies the illnesses that pose significant risks to public health. Disease X represents an unknown pathogen capable of causing a severe human epidemic. Although it is yet to be identified, health officials acknowledge the possibility of future outbreaks originating from unfamiliar viruses, necessitating preparedness.
Experts emphasise that before embarking on preparations for future pandemics, it is essential to learn from the lessons of COVID-19. Experts also highlight the need to address the mistakes made during the current pandemic, particularly in safeguarding vulnerable populations, such as older adults in long-term care.
The panel discussion in Davos serves as a significant platform for international leaders, health experts, and pharmaceutical companies to address the potential threat of Disease X. By examining both preparation and prevention strategies, this gathering aims to equip the global healthcare system with the necessary tools to respond effectively to future disease outbreaks. As the world faces the ongoing challenges of COVID-19, it is crucial to anticipate and prepare for the unknown, ensuring the health and safety of all.
